Bioterrorism


15

Bioterrorism


An Overview



Luciana L. Borio, Donald A. Henderson, Noreen A. Hynes



Although deliberate attempts to induce infectious disease among adversaries date back to at least the Roman Empire, concerns about the possible use of microbes by terrorists or by countries with developed biological weapons programs have increased significantly over the past several decades.13 In the 1990s in response to this growing unease, biological agents of concern were provisionally grouped by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) into three tiered categories (A, B, and C).4 Tier-specific assignment of an organism was based on several factors, including dissemination or transmissibility characteristics, anticipated associated morbidity and mortality, and/or special preparedness needs, including laboratory preparedness (Table 15-1). More recently, and complementary to the CDC categories, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), using additional criteria, has developed a systematic framework to assess the risk of a number of organisms.5 As a result of this assessment, a subset of organisms is deemed to pose a material threat to the national security of the United States (Table 15-2).6 The havoc that could be generated by an attack with one of these agents was illustrated in 2001 when a small number of letters containing Bacillus anthracis spores were disseminated via the U.S. postal system.7 Although only 22 people became ill at five sites in different states, fear and apprehension extended across the country and internationally.810



TABLE 15-1


Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Bioterrorism Agents and Disease Categories
























Category A B C
Priority 1 2 3
Characteristics Easily disseminated or spread person to person
Highly lethal
Serious public health effects
May cause great panic and social disruption
Moderately easy to disseminate
Moderate morbidity
Less lethal than category A agents
Require fewer special public health preparations
Includes emerging infectious diseases
Potential for wide dissemination in the future because of availability, ease of production/dissemination, and potential to result in high morbidity, lethality, and major public health effects
Disease (agent) Anthrax (Bacillus anthracis)
Botulism (Clostridium botulinum toxin)
Plague (Yersinia pestis)
Smallpox (variola)
Tularemia (Francisella tularensis)
Hemorrhagic fever viruses
Brucellosis (Brucella species)
Epsilon toxin of Clostridium perfringens
Food safety threats (e.g., salmonella)
Glanders (Burkholderia mallei)
Melioidosis (Burkholderia pseudomallei)
Psittacosis (Chlamydia psittaci)
Q fever (Coxiella burnetii)
Ricin toxin from Ricinus communis (castor beans)
Staphylococcal enterotoxin B
Typhus fever (Rickettsia prowazekii)
Viral encephalitis (e.g., Venezuelan equine encephalitis)
Water safety threats (e.g., Vibrio cholerae)
Emerging infectious disease threats such as Nipah virus and hantavirus


image


From Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Bioterrorism Agents/Diseases. Available at http://www.bt.cdc.gov/agent/agentlist-category.asp. Accessed July 3, 2013.



TABLE 15-2


Biological Agents with Material Threat Determinations*




image



* Material threat determinations have also been issued for classes of chemical agents, radiologic materials, and nuclear detonation effects. See reference 5 for more information.


From U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. 2012 Public Health Emergency Medical Countermeasures Enterprise (PHEMCE) Strategy. Available at http://www.phe.gov/Preparedness/mcm/phemce/Documents/2012-PHEMCE-Strategy.pdf. Accessed July 18, 2013.


There is a general consensus among those who are most knowledgeable of bioterrorism and biological warfare that the potential use of biotechnology for subversive goals poses a serious and growing threat, and that the release of one or more biological agents is inevitable.1114 The release and subsequent spread of a contagious agent such as smallpox virus could prove catastrophic if measures for control are not promptly and effectively applied. Equally serious could be a large-scale release of a highly lethal but nontransmissible agent such as anthrax. The possible use of genetically modified agents offers an additional dimension to the threat.15


Serious concerns about the potential use of what are commonly referred to as weapons of mass destruction (WMD) arose in the context of the Cold War and focused originally on nuclear weapons and the potential of these to result in the ultimate scenario of a “nuclear winter.”16 Chemical weapons remained on the agenda of concerns given their extensive use during World War I. Concern about biological weapons waned significantly during the 1970s, coincident with President Nixon’s initiative in 1969 to terminate the U.S. offensive biological weapons program and the subsequent endorsement by many countries of the 1972 Convention on the Prohibition, Production, and Stockpiling of Bacteriological (Biological) and Toxin Weapons and on their Destruction (usually referred to as the Biological Weapons Convention [BWC] or the Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention [BTWC]).17,18 The Convention called for the destruction of all stocks of biological weapons and the cessation of research on their use as offensive agents.


Among those responsible for national policy and by the public health and medical communities, three points of view predominated until about 1995 that served to discourage consideration of biological weapons as more than a theoretical possibility:



Each of these arguments has now been shown to be invalid. It is now known that there are nations and dissident groups who have both the motivation and access to skills to cultivate successfully some of the most dangerous pathogens, as well as deploy them as agents in acts of terrorism or war. This was borne out in the anthrax attacks of late 2001 during which letters containing anthrax spores were sent to media and political figures.7 Methods for transforming biological agents into weapons are publicly available, and the skills and equipment necessary to produce them are modest.


Some have assumed that because the likely pathogens to be used as biological weapons are comparatively rare, it would be difficult for a prospective terrorist to acquire the organisms. With the exception of smallpox and multidrug-resistant (MDR) anthrax, all of the pathogens deemed to pose a material threat to the national security of the United States exist in nature and periodically cause human and animal disease.19 Furthermore, many of these pathogens exist in diagnostic and research laboratories.


In contrast to the challenges of acquiring functional nuclear weapons, the production of biological weapons is easier and far less expensive. For many of the organisms, production is reasonably straightforward, especially for those with expertise. Those without such expertise can obtain it from the Internet and through academic courses, including sophisticated methods that could be used for genetic engineering of pathogens. Existing or new biomedical production facilities or industries could be converted to the production of microorganisms for bioweapons due to the dual-use nature of manufacturing equipment and supplies. Notably, comparatively little space is required and—for most agents—comparatively small quantities need to be aerosolized to produce large numbers of casualties. For example, in 1999 a small team of scientists without prior training in biological weapons development built a clandestine laboratory in Nevada under a Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) effort to assess whether non–state actors could manufacture biological weapons in the United States using materials purchased on the open market and whether such manufacture could be detected.20,21 The scientists produced enough simulated anthrax—without being detected—to kill at least 10,000 people (had they actually produced anthrax spores) with materials purchased on the open market, mostly from a local hardware store, with a budget of less than $1.5 million.20


Various methods might be used for dispersing biological weapons. The most likely would be direct contamination of food or water supplies and aerosol dispersion. There is a general consensus that aerosols pose the most serious threat. Organisms dispersed by other means could cause disease outbreaks, but they would be much less likely to cause disease on a scale great enough to threaten the integrity of civil government. Each of the organisms of greatest concern could be disseminated in a fine particle aerosol in the range of 1 to 5 microns. Such particles are inhaled and penetrate deeply into the lung. Larger-sized particles, in contrast, are trapped in the upper airways and usually do not succeed in initiating infection. A fine particle aerosol is invisible to the naked eye and behaves much like smoke in that it is able to penetrate most interior air spaces. In the 1979 Sverdlovsk anthrax outbreak, for example, human cases occurred in individuals who were as much as 4 km from the point of purported unintentional release of a spore-contaminated plume from an unfiltered exhaust pipe in a biological weapons production facility; animals who were 50 km away also developed anthrax.22


Generating an aerosol is comparatively straightforward using any of a number of off-the-shelf devices such as paint sprayers, fogging machines that disseminate insecticides, purse-size perfume atomizers, and hand-held drug delivery devices such as used by asthma patients. Even small releases of an agent would, almost certainly, result in serious public concern as was witnessed during the anthrax release in the United States in 2001. Repeated releases in different parts of the country could be devastating, especially if the public health response were seen as deficient. A large-scale release of agents could be as devastating as a nuclear weapon. For example, a 1993 Office of Technology Assessment report estimated that if 100 kg of anthrax spores were released upwind of Washington, DC, using a crop-duster aircraft, there would be between 130,000 and 3 million deaths.23


It is clear that preventing the proliferation and use of biological weapons or countering them will be extremely difficult. Detection or interdiction of those intending to use biological weapons is next to impossible. Thus, the first evidence of intent to use such weapons will likely be the appearance of sick people in hospital emergency departments. The rapidity with which those front-line health care workers and others, such as infectious disease specialists and laboratory scientists, can reach a proper diagnosis and the speed with which preventative and/or therapeutic measures are applied could well spell the difference between thousands and, perhaps, tens of thousands of casualties.



History of Biological Weapons


Recorded attempts to deliberately use microbial agents as weapons date back to the Roman Empire.3 Attempts that pre-date the 19th century and the development of the field of microbiology were generally focused on using infected people, animal carcasses, or other vectors (e.g., fomites) to spread disease (Table 15-3).17,2429 The effectiveness of these efforts is not clear.



TABLE 15-3


Summary of the History of Use of Biological Weapons






























































PERIOD SETTING OF USE AGENT(S) USED COMMENTS REFERENCES
Pre-20th Century

Roman Empire Warfare Unknown Roman armies used bodies of animals to contaminate water supplies 3, 17
14th Century Caffensistera (also known as Caffa or Kaffa) Yersinia pestis Cadavers flung by Mongols besieging the Genoese city using trebuchets. However, cadavers not efficient vector. Likely disease present beforehand and fleeing civilians carried plague to other European cities 17, 24, 25
Early Colonial North and South America French and Indian War
American Revolution
Variola major British took blankets from smallpox patients and gave to the American Indians with intent to infect
British sent infected civilians among revolutionary troops
17, 26, 27, 28
Early to Mid-20th Century
World War I Animals being shipped from the United States to Europe before the United States entry into the conflict Bacillus anthracis
Burkholderia mallei
German saboteurs dispersed 2 agents in eastern coastal port areas to infect horses, mules, and sheep being shipped to the Allies in an effort to impact transport and cavalry operations in Europe. Unclear if it was successful 17, 29, 30
World War II Against civilian populations and opposing troops B. mallei
B. anthracis
Coxiella burnetii
Francisella tularensis
Vibrio cholera
Yersinia pestis
Japan had a vast biological weapons research and development program. Attacked 11 cities in China with various organisms
Polish resistance fighters
Soviets possibly used F. tularensis against German Panzers at Stalingrad in 1942; C. burnetii against German troops in Crimea in 1943
Unclear if any attacks were successful
17, 25, 33, 38
Late 20th Century
1984 Against civilians Salmonella enterica subsp. enterica serovar Typhi Members of the Rajneesh religious cult deliberately contaminated salad bar contents in restaurants along an Oregon interstate highway in an effort to influence an election; 751 ill, 45 hospitalized, no deaths 2, 17, 49
Early 21st Century
2001 Against civilians B. anthracis Several letters laced with anthrax spores sent via the U.S. mail processed via high-speed sorting machines with aerosolization of the organism; 22 persons ill (in 5 geographic areas) among whom there were 5 deaths 7, 17


image



State Actors


In the early part of the 20th century, the advent of microbiology provided the scientific basis for the development of biological weapons and programs began to be developed by some countries, so-called state actors, as part of their warfare armamentarium. For example, Germany instituted a biological weapons program during World War I and conducted attacks of unknown effectiveness against animals (i.e., horses, mules, sheep, cattle) being shipped by neutral countries to the Allies.30


The use of chemical weapons by both sides of the conflict during World War I was considered appalling and led to the Geneva Protocol for the Prohibition of the Use in War of Asphyxiating, Poisonous or Other Gases and of Bacteriological Methods of Warfare (Geneva Protocol).31 This treaty was drawn up and signed under the auspices of the League of Nations in 1925 and entered into force in 1928. Although the Geneva Protocol (which has been ratified, acceded to, or succeeded to by 137 State Parties as of March 15, 201332) banned the use of biological weapons, it did not proscribe the research, production, or possession of biological weapons, and many of the State Parties to the treaty reserved the right to retaliate in kind should they or their allies be attacked. In addition, no provision was made for verification and compliance was voluntary. A number of countries agreeing to the Geneva Protocol began or continued biological weapons programs after becoming treaty signatories. These included Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Poland, the United Kingdom, and the Soviet Union.17 The United States did not ratify the Geneva Protocol until 1975 after it had ended its biological weapons program.25


Despite the list of countries agreeing to the Geneva Protocol, biological weapons are known to have been used during World War II by some who had signed the treaty, including Japan and possibly the Soviet Union.17 The Japanese biological weapons program was a vast enterprise. It consisted of a major center in Pingfan, Manchuria, termed Unit 731 with more than 3000 scientists plus smaller units at a number of other sites in China. Another center (Unit 100) worked primarily with animal and plant diseases, including glanders, sheep and cattle plague, red rust, and mosaic plant diseases. More than 10,000 prisoners died as a result of experimental infections or execution after experimentation.25,33 At least 11 cities in China were attacked during World War II using, variously, anthrax, cholera, Shigella, Salmonella, and plague organisms to contaminate food and water supplies. For example, fleas were infected with plague bacteria and released by aircraft over cities. Data regarding the success of Japan’s efforts to infect civilian populations is sketchy. Large outbreaks of cholera and plague are known to have occurred, but it is believed that transmission in any given area was not long sustained. The extent and sophistication of the Japanese program came to be known after the war when Japanese scientists were offered amnesty from war crimes prosecution for the information provided. This information served as an impetus for the expansion of biological weapons programs in a number of countries, including the United States, United Kingdom, Australia, France, and Canada.


In the United States, the principal biological weapons research site was located at Fort Detrick, Maryland; a production facility was constructed at Pine Bluff, Arkansas.25 The studies conducted were wide-ranging. Examples of human disease–associated organisms or toxins that were weaponized and stockpiled include B. anthracis; botulinum toxins; Francisella tularensis; Brucella suis; Coxiella burnetii; staphylococcal enterotoxin B; and Venezuelan equine encephalitis. In conjunction with these activities, medical countermeasures were developed, including vaccines and antibiotics, to protect scientists and military personnel; technical advances were made that permitted large-scale fermentation and storage of agents. Studies of animal responses to infection were conducted at Fort Detrick, in atolls in the Pacific, and at desert sites in the United States. Experiments using aerosolized simulant organisms were conducted in a number of cities to study survival time of organisms and patterns of dispersal.34


Over time there was increasing international concern that the Geneva Protocol did not ban the research, production, or possession of biological weapons and lacked the means to verify adherence by signatory countries. Accordingly, in 1969, draft proposals for a new protocol were submitted to the Committee on Disarmament of the United Nations.17 Meanwhile, President Nixon unilaterally terminated the U.S. offensive biological weapons program in 1969 by National Security Decision Memorandum (NSDM) 35, followed by the toxin weapons program in 1970 by NSDM 44.35,36 Then in 1972, the Convention on the Prohibition of the Development, Production and Stockpiling of Bacteriological and Toxin Weapons and on their Destruction—commonly referred to as the Biological Weapons Convention or the BWC—was opened for signature.18 State Parties to the BWC—which entered into force in 1975—are obligated to not develop, produce, stockpile, or otherwise acquire or retain microbial or other biological agents or toxins of types and in quantities that have no justification for prophylactic, protective, or other peaceful purposes. They may not use any means of delivery of such agents or toxins for hostile purposes and must take necessary measures to prohibit or prevent such activities in their territories. Further, State Parties should destroy or divert to peaceful purposes all agents, toxins, weapons, equipment, and means of delivery and not transfer to any recipient or in any way assist, encourage, or induce to manufacture or otherwise acquire biological agents, toxins, weapons, equipment, or means of delivery.


The BWC—which has 169 State Parties37—has no formal verification protocol to monitor compliance. Accordingly, verifying adherence to and compliance with the BWC by State Parties has proven challenging. For example, the Soviet Union became a State Party to the BWC in 1975. However, in the late 1980s and early 1990s serious concerns arose regarding the biological weapons capability of the Soviet Union.17 Through defectors, it was learned that the Soviet Union maintained a biological weapons program that was far more extensive and sophisticated than any had imagined at the end of the Cold War.3840 After the establishment of the BWC in 1972, the Soviet Union created a civilian research program called Biopreparat to conduct—under the guise of legitimate research—offensive biological weapons–related research not permitted under the BWC. The program included a system of 18 research laboratories and centers employing up to approximately 60,000 staff at its height. One of the larger and more sophisticated of its facilities, the Vector State Research Center of Virology and Biotechnology, referred to as VECTOR, was a 4000-person, 30-building complex with high-security biological facilities for laboratories and isolation of human cases. It was at VECTOR where, during the 1980s, the technical problems were solved for the large-scale production of smallpox virus intended to be used as an offensive weapon.


Another facility of concern was the Soviet Union’s principal production center for smallpox virus located near Moscow, at Sergiev Posad. It was reportedly able to produce upwards of 20 tons of smallpox virus annually, primarily for delivery via intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) as a strategic weapon.39 Currently, the site houses the Russian Federation’s Ministry of Defense Microbiology Scientific Research Institute, a laboratory research complex known to maintain a national collection of dangerous pathogens, including Ebola, Marburg, and Lassa viruses.42 In 1992, Russian officials confirmed the existence of a biological weapons program it had inherited from the Soviet Union and committed to dismantling it.43 The dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991 and the halting of the inherited Soviet offensive biological weapons program by Russian President Yeltsin in 1992 resulted in profound reductions in Biopreparat funding and personnel raising concerns that former biological weapons scientists may sell the expertise to states or groups seeking such knowledge.44 In 2000 it was estimated that approximately 15,000 Biopreparat scientists remained employed within the system, which could pose a proliferation risk.45


Another example that illustrates the challenges of verifying compliance to the BWC is the case of Iraq, which signed the BWC in 1972. After the first Gulf War (Operation Desert Storm) in 1991, U.N. Security Council Resolution 687 established, among other things, the U.N. Special Commission (UNSCOM) to carry out on-site inspections of Iraq’s biological, chemical, and missile capabilities and to oversee their destruction, removal, or procedures to render them harmless.46 In April 1991 under its initial declaration (as required under U.N. Resolution 687), Iraq declared that it did not have a biological weapons program and in August 1991 declared to the first biological weapons inspection team only that it had conducted “biological research activities for defensive military purposes.”47 It was not until July 1995, after 4 years of UNSCOM investigations and “in the light of irrefutable evidence” that Iraq admitted for the first time that it had an offensive biological weapons program.47 However, Iraq initially denied weaponization. It took a defector to begin to uncover the full extent of the Iraqi program. In August 1995 General Hussein Kamel, who had responsibility for all of Iraq’s weapons programs, defected to Jordan and began cooperating with UNSCOM. Subsequently, Iraq admitted to “a far more extensive biological warfare programme” than previously admitted including weaponization.”47 U.N. Resolution 687 invited Iraq to ratify the BWC, which it did in 1991.48


Verifying adherence to the BWC remains a challenge. A 2011 assessment by the U.S. Department of State found that China, Iran, and Russia—all State Parties to the BWC—engaged in biological research activities in 2011 with potential dual-use applications; however, available information did not establish that any of these countries is engaged in activities prohibited by the BWC.43 In addition, it remains unclear if Russia has fulfilled its obligations under the BWC with respect to the items specified in Article I of the BWC that it inherited from the former Soviet Union. Furthermore, the State Department noted that the United States has judged that North Korea—also a State Party to the BWC—might still consider the use of biological weapons an option and continues to develop its research and development capabilities without declaring relevant developments as part of the BWC confidence-building measures. Finally, the State Department noted the United States’ concern that Syria—a signatory but not State Party to the BWC—may be engaged in activities that would violate its obligations under the BWC if it were a State Party.



Non–State Actors


Non–state actors, including individuals and groups (e.g., terrorist groups, criminal networks), present a unique, complex, and growing challenge with respect to the development and use of biological weapons. For example, there were 185 documented cases of biological weapon use by non–state actors during the 20th century—85% of which occurred from 1990-1999.2 Twenty-seven of these cases were by terrorists, 56 by criminals, and 97 were by other/uncertain actors. A notable case occurred in September 1984, when members of a religious cult, the Rajneeshees, deliberately contaminated salad bars located along a stretch of an Oregon interstate highway with Salmonella typhimurium (now Salmonella enterica subsp. enterica serovar Typhi). Although there were no deaths among the 751 persons who became ill, 45 were hospitalized.49 The public health investigation of this incident initially failed to determine how the salad bars became contaminated. It was not until 1 year after the outbreak that dissension among the perpetrators led law enforcement officials to discover the contamination was deliberate with the ultimate goal of disrupting a local election.2 This episode illustrates the difficulty in differentiating an ordinary foodborne outbreak from a small-scale biological weapons attack conducted by non–state actors.


In late 2001 multiple letters containing anthrax spores were sent through the U.S. mail, resulting in 22 cases of anthrax—11 inhalational and 11 cutaneous.7 Five of the victims died. A lengthy investigation by the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), the U.S. Postal Inspection Service, other law enforcement agencies, and federal prosecutors from the District of Columbia and the Justice Department’s Counterterrorism Section determined that the late Dr. Bruce Ivins acted alone in planning and executing the 2001 anthrax attack.50 A review of the scientific approaches used in the investigation was conducted by a committee of the National Research Council (at the request of the FBI). It determined, among other things, that the available scientific evidence was insufficient to reach a definitive conclusion as to the origins of the anthrax spores used in the attack, leading some to continue to question whether Dr. Ivins was the culprit.51,52


In response to increasing concerns regarding the risk that non–state actors might acquire and use biological, chemical, and nuclear weapons and the fact that the BWC does not explicitly address non–state actors, U.N. Security Council Resolution 1540 was appended to Chapter VII of the U.N. Charter by unanimous vote on April 28, 2004.53 Chapter VII sets out the U.N. Security Council’s powers to maintain peace. Resolution 1540 adds the requirement that all member states develop laws with regulatory enforcement measures aimed at preventing the creation, proliferation, delivery, and spread of chemical, biological, and nuclear weapons by non–state actors. The desired intended outcome is to reduce the threat of non–state actors gaining access to and disseminating these weapons. The objectives of this Resolution were reiterated, and the mandate was extended under U.N. Security Council Resolutions 1673, 1810, and 1977 with the 1540 Committee mandate extended to 2021 to ensure full implementation of the original resolution through capacity building and technical assistance.54



Assessing the Threat and Risk of Biological Weapons


The prospects of preparing for and responding to an attack involving the dissemination of a biological weapon are daunting. Determining how to focus limited resources is a key to such efforts. Two critical elements are used to assess and estimate which biological organisms are of greatest concern: threat assessment and risk assessment. Threat assessment is the process of assessing the likelihood that a particular intentional hazard will occur by estimating potential adversaries’ capabilities and intentions.55 This is a particularly difficult task with respect to biological weapons. Potential adversaries pursuing a biological weapons capability encompass a diffuse set of state and non–state entities (e.g., terrorist groups, criminal networks, individuals), which are difficult to identify and gather information on.56 To achieve a tactical and strategic advantage, potential adversaries strive to maintain secrecy, making it difficult to gain insight into their specific intentions and capabilities. In addition, it is extremely difficult to differentiate biological weapons research and development from legitimate research and development efforts. These factors make it difficult to develop threat assessments that are accurate and actionable. In addition, the biological weapons threat continually evolves as a result of advances in science and technology and as a result of adversaries adjusting their strategies and tactics in response to a nation’s perceived vulnerabilities. Accordingly, there are substantial difficulties in identifying potential aggressors, let alone estimating their intentions and capabilities.


Given the inherent uncertainties in threat assessment, risk assessment is used to inform activities and programs for addressing the biological weapons threat. Risk is the potential for an unwanted outcome from an incident, event, or occurrence, as determined by its likelihood and the associated consequences.55 In the United States, the Biological Terrorism Risk Assessment (BTRA)—conducted by DHS every 2 years—is used to identify and prioritize credible, high-impact biological threats; assess their risks; and inform the federal government’s risk mitigation efforts.5 The BTRA employs a quantitative analysis that uses currently available information about potential aggressors, biological agents, acquisition, production, dissemination methods, targets, and public health response measures to define a wide range of attack scenarios and identify those that present the greatest risk to the U.S. population. This information is used by federal departments and agencies to help guide response planning.



Pathogens of Greatest Concern


Given the large number of potential biological threat agents and the long time lines, risks, and high costs associated with implementing risk mitigation strategies (e.g., medical countermeasures, surveillance infrastructure, medical and public health response capabilities), the U.S. government must prioritize the biological threats for which risk mitigation strategies should be pursued. The initial step in this prioritization scheme involves the BTRA, which identifies the biological agents deemed to be the greatest risk to the U.S. population.5 These agents are then further analyzed in the Material Threat Assessment (MTA) process whereby DHS employs the BTRA results and develops plausible high-consequence scenarios that estimate the number of people in the population who would be exposed to specified levels of a given threat agent in those scenarios. The MTA results, which are classified, are then provided to the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), which conducts medical and public health consequence assessments using modeling tools to estimate the potential impact of the MTA scenarios.57 DHS and HHS then collaborate to review these assessments and determine if a particular biological agent poses a threat to national security.5 DHS then issues Material Threat Determinations (MTDs) for those agents determined to present a material threat against the U.S. population sufficient to affect national security.


As of this writing, biological agents that have MTDs are B. anthracis, MDR B. anthracis, botulinum toxins, Burkholderia mallei, Burkholderia pseudomallei, Ebola virus, Francisella tularensis, Marburg virus, Rickettsia prowazekii, variola virus, and Yersinia pestis (see Table 15-2).6 Although each of these biological agents and their accompanying diseases are discussed in separate chapters, a brief contextual discussion of each follows here.



Smallpox


Smallpox, a disease caused by variola virus (see Chapter 135), was declared eradicated by the WHO in 1980.58 The VECTOR laboratory and the CDC in Atlanta are the only two repositories designated by the World Health Organization (WHO) to maintain stocks of the smallpox virus. Both institutions continue to do research on smallpox, albeit under the close scrutiny of the WHO Advisory Committee on Variola Virus Research.41 It is difficult to ascertain whether clandestine repositories exist. A release of smallpox today could result in a public health catastrophe. Smallpox spreads directly from person to person, causing death in approximately 30% of those infected; although there is no approved drug, an antiviral candidate, Arestvyr (USAN tecovirimat; aka ST-246), is in development and has been placed in the Strategic National Stockpile for use in an emergency.59 Vaccination against smallpox, once widely practiced, stopped in 1980 coincident with the declaration that smallpox had been eradicated. Few persons younger than 35 years have been vaccinated; vaccine immunity among those who are older is waning. The United States now has a large stockpile of vaccine, but most countries have little or none and worldwide production capacity is minimal.



Anthrax


Anthrax, caused by B. anthracis (see Chapter 209), was one of the principal biological weapons in the arsenal of former state-run programs, including the former Soviet Union and Iraq.17,60 Non–state actors have also pursued anthrax for weapons purposes. For example, the Aum Shinrikyo cult’s attempts to develop an anthrax weapon in Japan went undetected for 5 years until the cult’s sarin gas attack in the Tokyo subway system in 1995 attracted the attention of authorities.2 In addition, Al-Qa’ida was pursuing biological weapons capabilities, including anthrax, before the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan in 2001.17,61,62 The organism, found in nature and responsible for enzootic disease (including in the United States), is reasonably readily available, easy to produce in large quantity with a minimum amount of technical skill and supplies, and extremely stable in its spore form. Methods to grow MDR anthrax have been published in the scientific literature.63,64 Whether such strains maintain virulence is unknown.



Botulism


Botulinum neurotoxins, produced by Clostridium botulinum (see Chapter 247), were one of the principal weapons in the arsenal of the former Soviet Union and are known to have been produced as a weapon by Iraq.65 These neurotoxins are among one of the most toxic substances known, posing a significant bioweapon threat due to their potency, potential lethality, and relative ease of production. Those exposed to these neurotoxins may require prolonged intensive care and ventilatory support while receiving treatment with antitoxin.



Glanders and Melioidosis


Glanders is caused by infection with the bacterium Burkholderia mallei (see Chapter 223), and melioidosis is caused by Burkholderia pseudomallei (see Chapter 223).66 Melioidosis is endemic in Southeast Asia and northern Australia. The disease is associated with a high mortality due to the speed with which septicemia develops, particularly in immunocompromised hosts, and the inherent resistance of the bacteria to several classes of antibiotics. Prolonged courses of antibiotics are required to treat melioidosis. Despite prolonged antimicrobial therapy, recurrent disease is common. Glanders is primarily a zoonotic disease in Africa, Asia, the Middle East, and Central/South America. Although human susceptibility to B. mallei infection has not been studied in depth, the organism is highly infectious in the laboratory setting. As with melioidosis, prolonged antimicrobial therapy is required to treat it and to prevent its relapse.



Ebola and Marburg Hemorrhagic Fever


Ebola and Marburg hemorrhagic fever viruses (see Chapter 166) are considered to be a significant threat for use as biological weapons due to their potential for causing severe illness and death.67 These viruses are highly infectious, spread easily from person to person, and are associated with high mortality. No treatments are available.



Tularemia


Tularemia is a zoonotic disease found in many countries, including the United States. It is caused by the bacterium Francisella tularensis (see Chapter 229).68 It is a hardy organism capable of surviving for weeks in the environment.69 The bacterium was developed into an aerosol biological weapon by several countries in the past. It is considered to be a serious potential bioterrorist threat because it is one of the most infectious pathogenic bacteria known—inhalation of as few as 10 organisms can cause disease—and may lead to serious illness and death.



Epidemic Typhus


Epidemic typhus is caused by Rickettsia prowazekii (see Chapter 191), a bacterium carried and transmitted by body lice.70 Although naturally occurring disease is typically associated with war, famine, and other poor hygiene environment due to lice infestation, the bacterium is easily aerosolized. Mortality is low with prompt antimicrobial therapy, but diagnosis may be a challenge given the nonspecific clinical manifestations of the disease.



Plague


Plague is caused by Yersinia pestis (see Chapter 231), a bacterium that was developed as a bioweapon by several countries in the past.71 Primary pneumonic plague would result from an aerosol exposure and lead to a rapidly progressive and lethal infection; this form is transmissible to others. A zoonotic infection in many areas of the world, including the United States, Y. pestis is relatively simple to grow and disseminate.



Event Detection and Epidemiology


Event Detection


The early detection of a biological attack is one of the keys to minimizing morbidity and mortality. Ideally, early identification of a biological attack could come from sensitive and specific pattern recognition of illnesses or a surveillance system for identification of environmental pathogens. However, an effective system does not currently exist. This means that early detection of a biological attack will primarily rely on front-line clinicians and laboratorians. In the United States, federal, state, tribal, and territorial governments, as well as many health care systems, have taken steps to improve surveillance capabilities to detect unusual biological outbreaks and cases. And in recent years, improved surveillance systems at the international, national, and local levels—including an improved network of public health laboratories—have enabled the detection of outbreaks of novel infectious diseases with an exceedingly small number of cases.72 Despite these improvements, it is still highly likely that the first identification of a biological attack will be the diagnosis of patients by an astute clinician. Clinically suspect cases require prompt laboratory confirmation, which is an essential step for any public health response. Thus, through a variety of educational approaches and training programs, emphasis has been placed on assuring that clinicians, particularly emergency medicine and infectious disease specialists, are knowledgeable of biological agents of greatest concern, know of the importance of prompt reporting to public health officials, and have access to laboratories that are prepared to provide rapid disease diagnosis.


Since 2001 most clinical professional societies have provided bioterrorism training opportunities through publications in peer-reviewed journals, on-line training modules, and symposia at professional meetings. The American Board of Internal Medicine includes questions on the diagnosis and management of patients with infections due to biological threat agents on its certifying examination in internal medicine, as well as its subspecialty examination in infectious diseases. In 2003 the American Association of Medical Colleges recommended integration of bioterrorism and public health preparedness and response topics in medical school curricula.73



Event Epidemiology


The challenges associated with responding to a biological attack are uniquely different from those associated with responding to an explosion or to the release of a chemical agent. The effects of the latter are readily apparent, allowing early approximations to be made as to the geographic extent of the problem and the number and nature of casualties to be expected. Needed response efforts can thus be gauged and initiated immediately. For biological weapons, however, the incubation period of biological agents means there is an inherent delay from the time a covert attack is launched until the realization that an attack has occurred—most likely by the identification of sick patients. The varying incubation periods of the disease inevitably mean a delay in gauging the magnitude and scope of the attack and deploying appropriate response efforts on the basis of the epidemiology of the ensuing outbreak. However, the epidemiology of a disease outbreak from a biological attack can differ greatly from a natural disease outbreak, which can complicate event investigation and response efforts. For example, simultaneous attacks with an aerosolized biological agent in several locations could generate a large, complex geographic distribution of cases complicating efforts to develop an epidemic curve. In addition, exposure to a large inoculum of aerosolized biological agents could result in atypical disease presentations and clinical courses (e.g., shorter incubation periods, compressed and severe disease course). Furthermore, on the basis of experiences after the anthrax attacks, it is to be expected that there will be widespread apprehension, fear, and concern about the possibility of further cases—either from the spread of a contagious agent and/or from sequential attacks. Many may live in fear that they or their families will be the next victims. Experience shows that this inevitably complicates event investigation and response efforts.8,9,74,75 For example, in the 2001 anthrax attack it was not until more than 2 weeks after the initial anthrax-laden letters were sent through the U.S. Postal Service that the index case was diagnosed and reported.7,76 By that time nine cases of anthrax had actually occurred (two inhalational and seven cutaneous). As health and law enforcement authorities subsequently worked to determine what had happened and to implement appropriate response measures, additional anthrax-laden letters were sent (3 weeks after the initial letters), resulting in an additional 13 cases of anthrax (nine inhalational and four cutaneous).

Only gold members can continue reading. Log In or Register to continue

Stay updated, free articles. Join our Telegram channel

Jul 1, 2017 | Posted by in INFECTIOUS DISEASE | Comments Off on Bioterrorism

Full access? Get Clinical Tree

Get Clinical Tree app for offline access