Our Ageing World



Fig. 1.1
Percentage of the population aged 60 years or over, 2015–2050. Source: UN Population Division 2015. http://​esa.​un.​org/​unpd/​popdev/​Profilesofageing​2015/​index.​html



Table 1.1 shows the change in median age for the world and for the five countries: India, China, Brazil, Italy and Ghana. Median age is another way of measuring population ageing. It should be noted that even though a median age of 30 may seem young, this figure reflects a large proportion people in the older age brackets.


Table 1.1
Median age of the world population and selected countries, 1980–2050



















































 
1980

2015

2030

2050

World

22.5

29.6

33.1

36.1

India

20.2

26.6

31.2

37.3

China

21.7

37.0

43.2

49.6

Brazil

20.2

31.3

37.4

44.8

Italy

34.1

45.9

50.8

51.7

Ghana

17.0

20.6

22.7

26.8




1.3 Determinants of Population Ageing


Population ageing is the outcome of successful reductions in fertility, gains in infant and child survival and more recent gains in life expectancy at older ages. Fertility rates have declined dramatically across the world (see Fig. 1.2). At least 50% the world’s population live in a region in which fertility rates are below replacement level of 2.1 children per adult woman [4]. In India, fertility rates have fallen from 5.4 children per woman in 1970–1975 to 2.5 children per woman in 2015.

In association with declines in fertility and corresponding to better child survival, human life expectancy has also increased dramatically over the twentieth century [5]. More recent gains in life expectancy have been attributed to better survival in adult life, with increases in life expectancy at age 60 and at age 80 years [6]. These increases in life expectancy at older ages further change the structure of the oldest age groups.

In some populations, international migration has also had a role in changing age (and gender) distributions, but generally migration has had less of an impact than reductions in fertility and mortality rates [7].


1.3.1 Life Expectancy


Life expectancy is the average number of additional years that a person at a given age could expect to live, providing age-specific mortality levels remain constant. Table 1.2 contrasts life expectancy at birth, at age 60 and at age 80 for males and females in five different countries. In 2015, the average life expectancy for the world population was 68.3 years for men and 72.7 years for women. People who have survived childhood and who achieve “old age” have even greater life expectancies. People who live to age 60 have a further life expectancy of around 20 years, and people who live to age 80 have a further life expectancy of around 8 years. In India in 2010–2015, a male baby has a life expectancy of 66.1 years, but an adult male at age 60 has a life expectancy of another 17 years (total 77 years), and an adult male at age 80 has on average another 6.8 years (total 86.8). Further because this is an average, many 80-year-olds will live well beyond this age. Life expectancies at all ages are expected to increase over the coming decades.


Table 1.2
Life expectancy at birth and at age 60 years



































































































































 
At birth

At age 60

At age 80

2010–2015

2045–2050

2010–2015

2045–2050

2010–2015

2045–2050

World

Male

68.3

75.1

18.7

21.9

7.3

8.9

Female

72.7

79.1

21.5

24.4

8.5

10.2

India

Male

66.1

74.1

17.0

19.8

6.8

7.9

Female

68.9

77.8

18.4

21.9

7.3

8.6

China

Male

74.0

81.7

18.3

23.7

6.6

9.0

Female

77.0

83.4

20.6

25.4

7.4

10.0

Brazil

Male

70.3

79.7

19.4

23.9

7.4

9.2

Female

77.9

84.5

23.0

27.2

9.1

11.4

Italy

Male

80.3

85.7

23.0

27.4

8.8

11.2

Female

85.2

90.3

27.0

31.4

10.7

13.8

Ghana

Male

60.1

65.2

15.0

16.0

4.6

5.0

Female

62.0

68.4

16.0

17.3

4.8

5.3


The biggest influences on life expectancy have been reductions in child and infant mortality. In more recent years, there have been improvements in adult life expectancy in a number of countries, largely due to reduction in smoking and better treatments for cardiovascular disease [9]. However increases in life expectancy have not been uniform across the world. HIV/AIDS has been associated with declines in life expectancy in regions such as Sub-Saharan Africa [9].

Within-country differences in life expectancy are observed according to gender, socioeconomic disadvantage, area of residence, occupation and cultural groups. Women have a longer life expectancy than men, both at birth and at 60 years. Globally, women’s life expectancy for the period 2010–2015 was 4.5 years longer than men’s [3]. These gender differences in life expectancy are most marked in the European Region and the Americas, where life expectancy is generally high and where women’s risk of maternal mortality is low. Differences in life expectancy are also particularly high in countries where men face higher health risks due to conflict and violence and due to unhealthy behaviours such as smoking and excess alcohol consumption [10].

Indigenous people tend to have lower life expectancies. Australian Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people have a life expectancy approximately 10 years less than that of the overall Australian population [11]. In Canada, life expectancy at age 25 is also shorter among men reporting indigenous ancestry, with remaining life expectancy at age 25 is estimated at 46.9 years for registered Indians, 48.1 years for non-status Indians and 48.5 years for Métis [12]. Socioeconomic status also has a major effect on life expectancy. In Canada, men aged 25 years have a remaining life expectancy of 55.3 years if they are in the highest income quintile, compared with 48.2 years if they are in the lowest quintile [12].

Another way of looking at life expectancy is to examine the absolute risk of death at different ages. Dobson et al. [13] examined the average risk of death for older men and women in Australia. For a man aged 71–73 years, the probability of dying in the next 10 years was 19% if he had body mass index in the healthy range and was physically active, non-smoker with some alcohol consumption. In contrast, the probability of dying in the next 10 years was 29% if he was obese, physically inactive, smoked and did not drink alcohol. Corresponding probabilities for women were 10% and 18%. The absolute risk charts are available online at http://​bmcpublichealth.​biomedcentral.​com/​articles/​10.​1186/​1471-2458-12-669.

According to the Global Burden of Disease Study [9], the probability of death between age 50 years and age 75 years ranges from 10.3% for women in Andorra to 76.3% for women in Lesotho. Women in India had around 45% probability of dying between the ages of 50 and 75 years.


1.4 Demographic and Epidemiological Transitions


Population ageing and increases in life expectancy are accompanied by changes in patterns of prevalent and incident diseases. As populations age, countries undergo major transitions in the main causes of illness and burden of disease, with increasing burden of non-communicable disease. According to the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013, almost 65% of deaths are due to non-communicable disease. Many of these diseases are most common at older ages. However, not all of the change in disease profile is due to ageing. Many countries are also experiencing massive economic development and increasing urbanization, along with substantial changes to lifestyle and increasing prevalence of risk factors including unhealthy diet, physical inactivity, obesity, hypertension and tobacco use [14]. Such epidemiological trends have been observed in India, China, Latin America and in parts of Africa [15]. For instance, it is estimated that nearly 15% of the global burden of diabetes is accounted for by 35 million people with diabetes in India [16]. Where people live in poverty, the onset of non-communicable diseases begins to occur at earlier ages with a pattern of “post-transitional illnesses in pre-transitional circumstances”. For these people, chronic disease will dominate their adult lives with likely very high rates of disability at older ages [17]. In addition to the rise of non-communicable disease, many rapidly ageing countries continue to experience high levels of infectious diseases including childhood infections, HIV/AIDS and high infant and maternal mortality rates [15].

Table 1.3 shows the most common causes of death [18]. Globally, the most common causes of death are cardiovascular diseases, cancers and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.


Table 1.3
Twenty most common causes of death (000 s)



























Cause

Deaths (000s)

% Deaths

Deaths per 100,000 population

All causes

55,859

100.0

789.5

Ischaemic heart disease

7356

13.2

104.0

Stroke

6671

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Mar 29, 2020 | Posted by in GERIATRICS | Comments Off on Our Ageing World

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