© Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2017
Angela Georgia Catic (ed.)Ethical Considerations and Challenges in Geriatrics10.1007/978-3-319-44084-2_11. Geriatric Epidemiology
(1)
Department of Internal Medicine, Section of Geriatrics, Baylor College of Medicine and Michael E. DeBakey VA Medical Center, Houston, TX, USA
Keywords
Chronic illnessPolypharmacyDementiaSurrogate decision-makerHealthcare literacyIntroduction
Secondary to declining fertility and increasing life expectancy, the median age of the world’s population is increasing leading to significant epidemiological changes including challenges within healthcare and social services. Throughout the twentieth century, fertility rates have declined in developed countries, and this decline has spread to developing countries over the last 30 years [1]. Increasing life expectancy has also contributed significantly to the aging of the population. During the twentieth century, life expectancy in developed countries increased by 71 % for females and 66 % for males. This was initially due to decreased childhood mortality, but, over the last several decades, gains are due to individuals living into advanced old age (>85 years).
Due to declining fertility rates and increased longevity, the geriatric population will increase significantly over the next several decades. While only 4 % of the US population was 65 years or older in 1900, the percentage of the population comprised of elders has increased significantly over the last century and is expected to continue to increase: 9.8 % in 1970, 13 % in 2010, and 20 % by 2050 [2]. In terms of actual numbers, the number of individuals age 65 years and older in the USA is anticipated to increase from 43.1 million in 2012 to 83.7 million by 2050 [2]. The aging of the population is not only occurring in the USA but throughout the world. There were 901 million individuals age 60 years or older worldwide in 2015 and this is projected to increase to 1.4 billion by 2030 and 2.1 billion by 2050 [3]. The aging trend is anticipated to be especially significant in lesser developed, generally younger countries such as Latin America and the Caribbean where there will be a 70 % increase in the number of elders over the next 15 years. During this same time period, it is projected that the geriatric population of Africa and Asia will increase >60 %. In contrast, the population in Europe is already much older, so the elderly population is anticipated to increase by 23 % over the next 15 years [3].
Within the generalized aging trend, there continue to be disparities in longevity between men and women. Throughout the world, older women have a longer life expectancy than men and therefore comprise a larger percentage of the population. Between 2000 and 2030, women will account for 56–59 % of the elderly US population [4]. This gender gap is even more significant among the oldest-old (>85 years of age) where there are two to five times as many elderly women as men. This trend is expected to continue with females born in 2012 living 5 years longer than their male contemporaries [5].
The US geriatric population will become increasingly racially and ethnically diverse over the next several decades. This is secondary to the aging of individuals who immigrated to the country when they were younger as well as immigration among elderly individuals, especially from Latin America, Asia, and Africa. In 2013, 21.2 % of elderly Americans were members of racial or ethnic minorities and this is expected to increase to 28.5 % by 2030 [6].
Lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender (LGBT) individuals also represent a growing demographic within the elderly population. It is estimated that there are between 1.75 and 4 million LGBT elders ≥60 years of age and this is expected to double by 2030 [7, 8]. Elders who are LGBT have significant physical and mental health disparities compared to their heterosexual contemporaries including higher rates of feeling isolated and contemplating suicide. Unfortunately, many providers lack knowledge regarding the special health issues of this population.
The changing demographics of the geriatric populations have important medical, social, and ethical implications which will continue to develop over the next several decades. As the US government, medical systems, communities, and families adapt to the challenges of an aged population, an understanding of the unique medical and social needs of the geriatric population will help to ensure they receive ethical, individualized care.
Medical Implications of the Aging Population
Acute Versus Chronic Illness
In juxtaposition to past experience, there has been a shift in the leading causes of death from acute illness to chronic disease. Chronic conditions are defined as conditions lasting ≥1 year which require either ongoing medical attention or that limit activities of daily living [9]. In 2012, chronic diseases accounted for 68 % of all deaths with cardiovascular disease, cancer, chronic lung disease, and diabetes being most prevalent [10]. In the USA, the top ten causes of death among people aged 65 years and older are heart disease, malignancy, chronic respiratory disease, cerebrovascular disease, Alzheimer disease, diabetes, influenza and pneumonia, nephritis, unintentional injury, and septicemia [11].
The transition from acute to chronic illness as the leading cause of mortality represents a significant challenge for the healthcare system. Among individuals in the geriatric age group, chronic conditions are common, costly, and morbid. Three in four Americans age 65 years or older suffer from multiple chronic conditions [12]. Care for individuals with multiple chronic conditions accounts for 71 % of total healthcare spending in the USA, and, among elderly Medicare beneficiaries, this increases to 93 % of Medicare spending [13, 14]. With each chronic condition developed, the risk of impaired daily function, hospitalization, and premature death increases [12]. Over the next several decades, as continued growth in the number of elders with one or more chronic illnesses results in increasing strain on the healthcare system, providing high-quality, evidenced-based care will be critical to improving patient outcomes and minimizing financial burden.
Polypharmacy
As individuals are living longer and suffering from multiple chronic illnesses, many are taking numerous medications. This is reflected by the fact that elders comprise slightly more than 13 % of the population but consume 40 % of prescription medications and 35 % of over-the-counter drugs [15]. On average, individuals between 65 and 69 years of age take 14 prescriptions per year, and this increases to 18 per year among elders 80–84 years of age [15]. Unfortunately, increasing numbers of medications are associated with greater risk of adverse drug reactions and side effects. Among community dwelling elders, one in three taking ≥5 medications will have an adverse drug reaction within 1 year [16]. It is estimated that at least 350,000 adverse drug events occur annually in long-term care residents and more than half of these are preventable [17]. In addition, despite the implementation of Medicare Part D prescription drug benefits in 2006, drug costs continue to be a significant financial strain for many elders. This often leads to difficult decisions about how financial resources will be spent (i.e., food and rent versus medications) and medication noncompliance. When making medication decisions in the elderly, clinicians should incorporate the ethical principles of non-maleficence (not inflicting intentional harm) and beneficence (having the best interest of the patient at heart). Careful consideration should be given to the patient’s goals of medical care when considering the addition or discontinuation of any medication. In addition, the possible risks and benefits of all medications should be carefully reviewed so that patients can make an informed decision prior to starting any new therapy. Clinicians should have frank discussions with patients regarding the financial implications of their medication regimens and be open to considering lower-cost, alternative therapies or assisting patients in pursuing sources of reduced cost pharmaceuticals.