The best data on adolescent substance abuse come from the
Monitoring the Future (
MTF)
study, conducted by the Institute for Social Research at the University of Michigan (www.monitoring-thefuture.org). This school-based study began in 1975, and currently surveys a nationally representative sample of 8th, 10th, and 12th graders. The sample in 2014 consists of 41,600 youth in 377 secondary schools nationwide. Because the anonymous surveys are conducted in schools, MTF data do not reflect drug use by out-of-school youth (including youth who dropout, are homeless, or incarcerated), whose use is typically higher. Declining use of a number of licit and illicit substances is a main finding in 2014. The annual prevalence of drug use declined for 28 of the 34 drug outcomes reported for the combined pool of 8th, 10th, and 12th graders. The most important findings from the 2014 MTF survey are discussed in the following section. Overall trends in drug use among 8th, 10th, and 12th graders have fluctuated since 1975, with peak use in 1981 when 66% of MTF adolescents reported use of an illicit drug in their lifetime. After reaching a low of 29.8% in 1992, lifetime drug use then increased to a peak level of 43.3% in 1997; it then decreased again to a low of 32.6% in 2008. Lifetime illicit drug use then increased steadily to 36.0% in 2013, but then decreased slightly to 34.9% in 2014. The major cause of this decline was a drop in marijuana use. One of the more concerning trends has been in the change of perception of risk of substances in the MTF samples. Along with the increase in use over the last few years, there has been a decline in perceived risk, which can foreshadow future increases in drug use in this cohort. The MTF survey categorizes use across a continuum by asking about lifetime use (ever used), annual use (any use in the last year), 30-day use (a measure of regular use), and daily use. The data are then able to give an estimate of chronicity of use for 8th, 10th, and 12th graders.
Figure 63.1 shows trends in lifetime use of various drugs;
Table 63.1 shows prevalence of lifetime, annual, past 30 day, and daily use of various drugs for 8th, 10th and 12th graders in 2012.
Some of the most notable findings across all three grades were slight decreases in lifetime and annual illicit drug use and the prevalence of alcohol and marijuana use. Both alcohol and marijuana are illicit for this age-group. It is also important to note that for all other measured reports of illicit drug use, the overall combined use rates are much more consistent than is the rate of use of a particular drug by year or decade. This again illustrates generational
forgetting and the perceived risk of particular drugs waxing and waning over time. However, it also illustrates that the number of youth interested in other illicit drugs remains relatively stable over time (see
Fig. 63.1).